Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1996

   Mesoscale Discussion 1996
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1212 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

   Areas affected...west-central into central Illinois

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 161712Z - 161845Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Locally damaging wind gusts are possible for the next 1-2
   hours. A watch is not currently anticipated due to the limited areal
   coverage.

   DISCUSSION...A thunderstorm has recently intensified over Pike
   County, IL, on the southern flank of a long-lived convective system.
   Latest objective analysis suggests that a narrow corridor of
   moderate instability (MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg) has developed
   immediately ahead of the storm. However, earlier storms in the St.
   Louis vicinity have at least temporarily stabilized the air mass
   from east-central MO into southwest IL, which may limit a
   longer-duration severe weather threat with the above-mentioned
   storm. As such, a watch is not currently expected. However, KLSX
   does show some base velocity enhancement, suggesting the potential
   for locally damaging wind gusts in the near term.

   ..Mead/Guyer.. 08/16/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...

   LAT...LON   40189126 40639118 40578986 40228891 39658895 39408948
               39359014 39759136 40189126 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH