Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1995

   Mesoscale Discussion 1995
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1056 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

   Areas affected...central and eastern Ohio into western Pennsylvania
   and northwest West Virginia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 161556Z - 161700Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...The threat for severe weather is expected to increase by
   early to mid afternoon with damaging wind gusts being the primary
   hazard. A severe thunderstorm watch is likely.

   DISCUSSION...Ahead of an MCV moving through far southeast lower MI,
   clusters of thunderstorms have persisted this morning over northwest
   into west-central OH. Downstream from that convection, a corridor of
   relatively fewer clouds should allow for stronger daytime heating to
   occur this afternoon. When coupled with boundary-layer dew points in
   the low to mid-70s F, daytime heating is expected to erode remaining
   convective inhibition, with MLCAPE increasing to 1500-2500+ J/kg.
   That destabilization process should allow the ongoing storms to
   intensify by early to mid afternoon from eastern OH into western PA
   and northwest WV.

   The current IND VWP is sampling a belt of 30-40 kt westerly winds in
   the 1-5 km layer, which will conditionally support cold pool
   organization with an attendant damaging wind risk. A brief tornado
   is possible, though the veered low-level winds are expected to limit
   the magnitude of low-level shear and a resultant greater risk.

   ..Mead/Guyer.. 08/16/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...

   LAT...LON   39898319 40828254 40988120 41168040 41067972 40197965
               39468033 38938117 38888214 38988304 39898319 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH