Mesoscale Discussion 1984
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1142 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026
Areas affected...portions of northeast Kansas...northern Missouri
into southern Iowa and western Illinois
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 150442Z - 150645Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to increase in
coverage this evening across the eastern MO and Mid MS Valleys.
Isolated hail is the most likely hazard, though sporadic damaging
gusts are also possible. The lack of a more organized severe risk
suggests a WW is unlikely.
DISCUSSION...Over the last hour, regional radar imagery showed
scattered storms had developed and intensified along a stationary
frontal zone from northern KS/MO into southern IA and western IL.
Forcing for ascent has steadily increased this evening as a 30-40 kt
low-level jet is developing and focusing low-level warm advection
along the front. Lingering warm surface temperatures and dewpoints
in the mid 70s F south of the front are supporting moderate to large
buoyancy (2000-3000 J/kg of MUCAPE) despite modest mid-level lapse
rate profiles. With continued forcing along the frontal axis, storm
coverage is expected to increase through the overnight hours.
Area VADs show low-level shear has increased along with the
aforementioned low-level jet. Much of this shear is concentrated in
the lowest 3km, with deep-layer shear comparatively limited due to
weak flow aloft around 20 kt. This could support some supercell
structures, though the weaker deep-layer shear casts some
uncertainty on the longevity of storm organization. Still, the large
buoyancy could support some risk for hail. Additionally, any
clustering could allow for strong to severe gusts. However, this
should become less likely with time as the boundary layer stabilizes
overnight.
CAM guidance shows storms increasing in coverage and gradually
shifting eastward along the front through the night. Some runs do
show more clustering which could support a greater localized risk,
though this is uncertain as the trend should be for storms to become
elevated. Thus, while some severe risk is possible over the next few
hours, the lack of a more focused and organized severe risk suggests
a WW is currently unlikely.
..Lyons/Gleason.. 08/15/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...
LAT...LON 38909583 39029227 39608986 40178936 40608945 40778994
40869172 40169619 40139626 39809654 39399645 39209624
38909583
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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