Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1976

   Mesoscale Discussion 1976
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0131 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024

   Areas affected...portions of central/eastern ID...northwest WY...and
   southwest MT

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 231831Z - 232030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible
   through the afternoon across parts of central/eastern Idaho,
   northwest Wyoming, and southwest Montana. Locally strong gusts of
   50-65 mph and hail to near 1 inch diameter may occur with strongest
   cells.

   DISCUSSION...Temperatures have quickly warmed into the mid 70s to
   mid 80s F across the region. Steep midlevel lapse rates/cool
   temperatures aloft are aiding in weak destabilization early this
   afternoon. As a result scattered convection has already developed
   over higher terrain. This activity should gradually
   increase/strengthen with time as additional destabilization occurs
   through the afternoon within a moderately sheared environment. 

   Boundary-layer moisture will remain modest, but very steep low-level
   lapse rates and inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles will
   support strong outflow winds. Regional VWP data and forecast
   soundings show elongated/straight hodographs. Coupled with cool
   midlevel temps and favorable vertical shear, this could support
   marginally severe hail from stronger/longer-lived updrafts. The
   somewhat moisture-starved environment should limit a greater/more
   widespread severe risk, and a watch is not currently expected for
   the MCD area.

   ..Leitman/Guyer.. 08/23/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...SLC...PIH...MSO...BOI...

   LAT...LON   46091515 46141312 45981081 45820966 45330912 44920906
               44340897 42950936 42511022 42011118 41961231 42161328
               44581520 45571565 46091515