Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1974

   Mesoscale Discussion 1974
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0551 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024

   Areas affected...Central High Plains

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 222251Z - 230045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Convection is expected to increase in areal coverage
   across the central High Plains over the next few hours. Hail/wind
   are possible with these storms as they spread across eastern
   Colorado toward northwest Kansas.

   DISCUSSION...Strong surface heating has contributed to very steep
   0-3km lapse rates across eastern Colorado. Scattered robust
   convection has developed off the higher terrain which is now
   propagating over lower elevations where temperatures remain in the
   90s. Over the next few hours, this activity will spread into a
   corridor of somewhat stronger low-level convergence characterized by
   higher boundary-layer moisture and stronger instability. Diagnostic
   data suggests MLCAPE values are near 2000 J/kg near the CO/KS border
   where surface dew points are holding above 60F. While satellite
   imagery does not explicitly reflect any short-wave troughs, modest
   500mb southwesterly flow does extend across this region and 0-6km
   bulk shear is at least 30kt. This environment is supportive of
   supercells and ongoing activity should continue to grow upscale into
   the early evening. With time, LLJ is forecast to increase across the
   TX Panhandle into western KS so a larger complex of storms could
   emerge. Hail/wind are the primary threats.

   ..Darrow/Gleason.. 08/22/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

   LAT...LON   39290438 40480325 39570110 37690229 39290438