Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1972

   Mesoscale Discussion 1972
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0616 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

   Areas affected...Portions of northern and central Utah into far
   southwest Wyoming

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 132316Z - 140115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered to numerous thunderstorms ongoing over parts of
   the eastern Great Basin and Intermountain West may pose a risk for
   isolated strong/severe gusts this evening. Storm organization will
   be limited and a watch is unlikely.

   DISCUSSION...As of 2310 UTC, regional radar and visible imagery
   showed numerous thunderstorms ongoing within a plume of monsoon
   moisture over the eastern Great Basin. Over the last hour, a more
   robust cluster of storms has emerged across parts of northwestern
   UT. The environment downstream remains warm and quite moist, with
   dewpoints in the low 50s F. This is supporting around 1000 J/kg of
   MLCAPE across northern and central UT, which will be sufficient for
   strong updrafts. While the air mass is more moist than typical with
   PWATS near or exceeding 1 inch, area RAP soundings show steep lapse
   rates in the lowest 1-2 km with T/TD spread around 30 degrees F.
   This is more than sufficient to support stronger downdrafts and
   strong/severe gusts within the ongoing convection, especially with
   the more clustered storms. Some hail will also be possible with the
   stronger intermittent cores.

   Several mesonet sites have already reported gusts in the 45-50 kt
   range. This looks likely to continue as convective coverage slowly
   increases. While strong/severe gusts will be possible into this
   evening, little in the way of storm organization is expected owing
   modest deep-layer shear around 20 kt. This suggest the strongest
   storms are likely to be transient. Additionally, convection will
   gradually move eastward into a cooler air mass with weaker lapse
   rates and buoyancy across northern UT and far southwest WY this
   evening. This suggests the overall risk for severe gusts and hail
   should be isolated and a Watch is unlikely.

   ..Lyons/Hart.. 08/13/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...RIW...GJT...SLC...

   LAT...LON   40991358 41641111 41321031 40130983 39361047 39151120
               38831209 38581301 38571404 38811397 40991358 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN