Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1968

   Mesoscale Discussion 1968
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0442 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024

   Areas affected...portions of southern Arizona

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 212142Z - 212315Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A few instances of severe hail/wind gusts are possible
   through the remainder of the afternoon and evening. The severe
   threat should remain isolated, and a WW issuance is not anticipated.

   DISCUSSION...Pulse-cellular storms have been percolating in
   intensity over the past few hours with approach of peak afternoon
   heating. These storms are developing atop a low-level airmass
   characterized by steep low-level lapse rates. Given relatively weak
   vertical wind shear in place, storms will likely remain
   pulse-cellular in nature, though a few multicell clusters are
   possible. Severe gusts are the main threat, though a couple
   instances of large hail may also accompany the strongest,
   longest-lived storm cores.

   ..Squitieri/Gleason.. 08/21/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TWC...PSR...

   LAT...LON   31231125 32191173 33041210 33561201 33541125 33221064
               32690992 32150936 31550924 31230931 31231125