Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1968

   Mesoscale Discussion 1968
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0224 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

   Areas affected...portions of the Great Basin

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 131924Z - 132130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will bring a risk for
   isolated damaging/severe wind gusts and perhaps an instance or two
   of marginally severe hail to portions of the Great Basin through
   this evening.

   DISCUSSION...Aided by ascent ahead of an upper-level trough centered
   over California, thunderstorm development is ongoing across portions
   of central and southern Nevada and along the Sierra Nevada Mountains
   in eastern California. Strong diurnal heating, modestly cool
   temperatures aloft, and surface dewpoints around 50 F are supporting
   weak buoyancy, with 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE depicted by latest
   objective analysis and the 18 UTC VEF observed sounding. As
   thunderstorms evolve northeastward through this evening, steepening
   low-level lapse rates and increasingly well-mixed boundary layer
   profiles will promote evaporatively cooled downdrafts and cold pool
   formation. In conjunction with modest effective shear of 20-25 kts,
   this is expected to result in loosely organized convective clusters
   and an isolated risk for damaging/severe wind gusts. An instance or
   two of marginally severe hail also cannot be ruled out with the most
   robust updrafts. Given the expectation for the severe risk to remain
   limited in magnitude, watch issuance appears unlikely at this time.

   ..Chalmers/Guyer.. 08/13/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SLC...VEF...LKN...REV...

   LAT...LON   37611884 38451943 39441984 39751987 40221967 40791872
               40981771 40961676 40301563 38761418 37741342 36851322
               36121380 35781489 35711568 36751759 37071809 37611884 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN