Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1966

   Mesoscale Discussion 1966
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0839 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024

   Areas affected...Southeastern Colorado

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 210139Z - 210315Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds are ongoing
   across portions of southeastern Colorado.

   DISCUSSION...Deep boundary-layer mixing across southeastern Colorado
   has resulted in steep low-level lapse rates that support severe
   outflow winds. A surging downdraft has been observed north of the
   KPUX radar site, with 60-70 MPH winds 500 ft above radar level.
   Other convective cells in the Marginal Risk area will be capable of
   similar outflow surges over the next 1-2 hours, with some potential
   for additional local enhancement of outflow winds where outflows
   merge. This activity should gradually die off in the absence of
   solar heating and in the presence of a stabilizing nocturnal
   boundary layer.

   ..Halbert/Squitieri/Guyer.. 08/21/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   36990304 37440432 38460484 38870488 39080475 39370394
               39390299 39060227 38290198 37030190 36990304