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| Mesoscale Discussion 1956 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 1956
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0219 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024
Areas affected...southeast Wyoming...parts of the Nebraska
Panhandle...and much of eastern Colorado
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 191919Z - 192045Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon in the central High Plains with a threat for large hail
and severe wind gusts.
DISCUSSION...Moderate destabilization has occurred across eastern
Colorado amid moist upslope flow (mid 60s dewpoints) and
temperatures in the 80s. SPC mesoanalysis has indicated inhibition
is decreasing along the Front Range. At least some inhibition is
expected to remain across the Plains this afternoon which will
likely limit storm initiation, however, scattered thunderstorm
development is expected along the higher terrain which should
intensify as it moves east into the more unstable airmass across the
Plains this afternoon and evening. Mid-upper level flow of 30 to 40
knots combined with easterly flow at the surface will provide ample
wind shear for some storm organization including the potential for a
few supercells Despite the relatively warm temperatures aloft
beneath the upper-ridge axis, steep lapse rates and the moderate
shear should support some hail threat, especially early in the storm
lifecycle when storm mode is more discrete. Later this afternoon and
especially into the evening, expect the threat to transition to
severe wind gusts with one or more clusters of storms which may
develop out of the afternoon/early evening convection.
..Bentley/Hart.. 08/19/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...
LAT...LON 37890474 38540471 38970472 39720475 40790473 42110458
42450298 41310246 39900251 38220328 37520393 37890474
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