Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1952

   Mesoscale Discussion 1952
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1212 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

   Areas affected...central into southeast Illinois

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 574...

   Valid 121712Z - 121815Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 574
   continues.

   SUMMARY...An isolated damaging wind threat may persist in the
   remaining valid portion of the watch area through 18Z. Additional
   severe storms appear possible this afternoon across parts of central
   into southeast Illinois, potentially requiring a new watch.

   DISCUSSION...Elevated thunderstorms forming atop of the morning MCS
   cold pool have gradually consolidated into a cluster over portions
   of Knox, Stark, and Peoria Counties in west-central IL as of 1705Z
   with some earlier velocity enhancement noted in KDVN radar data.
   Given the presence of fairly substantial convective inhibition for
   surface-based parcels, it remains uncertain whether a cold pool can
   organize with that convection, which would signal some increase in
   damaging wind potential.

   Additional severe storms appear possible this afternoon along the
   leading edge of the MCS gust front over central IL, where filtered
   sunshine has allowed temperatures to warm into the mid 80s with
   MLCAPE estimated in the 2000-3000 J/kg range, per latest objective
   analysis. Should that scenario unfold, a new severe thunderstorm
   watch would need to be considered for portions of central into
   southeast IL.

   ..Mead.. 08/12/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...

   LAT...LON   40489130 41079107 41309004 41268969 40438845 40138776
               39668752 39328756 39078782 38928834 39048895 39749024
               40279129 40489130 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN