Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1951

   Mesoscale Discussion 1951
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1210 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

   Areas affected...portions of western New York into the Northern Tier
   of Pennsylvania

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 121710Z - 121915Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will pose an
   isolated risk for large hail and damaging wind gusts this afternoon
   from the Niagra Frontier into the Northern Tier of PA.

   DISCUSSION...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are ongoing
   across southern Ontario and portions of the Niagra Frontier as of
   1710 UTC, with this activity forecast to develop southeastward into
   southern NY/northern PA through this afternoon. While surface
   temperatures remain seasonably cool in the low-to-mid 70s F, surface
   dewpoints in the low-to-mid 60s F and regionally steep mid-level
   lapse rates of 6-7 C/km are supporting modest buoyancy, with 1000 to
   locally 1500 J/kg MLCAPE indicated by recent objective analysis.
   Concurrently, a mid/upper-level speed max will continue to shift
   eastward from Lower Michigan into NY/PA through this afternoon and
   evening. This enhanced mid/upper flow (sampled by the BUF VAD
   profile and the 12 UTC BUF observed sounding) will continue to
   promote effective shear of 30-40 kts and elongated hodographs
   favorable for supercell structures. The primary risks associated
   with this activity will be large hail and damaging wind gusts.
   Current expectations are for convective coverage and the severe risk
   to remain too isolated for watch issuance; however, a targeted
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch could be considered should greater
   storm/severe coverage prevail.

   ..Chalmers/Thompson.. 08/12/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...

   LAT...LON   43697757 43417687 43057616 42747564 42337523 41817503
               41517536 41417608 41527786 41807890 42127939 42337959
               42467962 42597947 42847929 43257934 43517927 43717871
               43747817 43697757 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN