Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1950

   Mesoscale Discussion 1950
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0606 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024

   Areas affected...Portions of southeast Idaho into southwest Montana

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 182306Z - 190130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated severe wind gusts and severe hail are possible as
   thunderstorms track northeastward into this evening. A watch is not
   expected.

   DISCUSSION...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are evolving
   across portions of southeast ID and southwest MT this afternoon --
   along the eastern periphery of a large-scale trough off the Pacific
   Northwest coast. These storms are along the eastern periphery of a
   belt of 30-40 kt midlevel southwesterly flow, which is contributing
   to favorable deep-layer shear for some convective organization --
   given sufficient (albeit weak) surface-based instability and steep
   deep-layer lapse rates. Initial cellular activity will pose a risk
   of isolated severe hail and locally severe downbursts. With time,
   some localized upscale growth is expected as storms track
   northeastward into this evening, with an increasing risk of embedded
   severe wind gusts (60-70 mph). Overall, the severe risk is expected
   to be too localized for a watch consideration.

   ..Weinman/Guyer.. 08/18/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TFX...PIH...MSO...BOI...

   LAT...LON   44931269 44501262 43661214 42891195 42211237 42111312
               42211425 42511456 43321445 43701412 44201392 45131410
               45471445 46041435 47621339 47821294 47851252 47631197
               47181155 46521160 45711242 44931269