Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1949

   Mesoscale Discussion 1949
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0519 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024

   Areas affected...Southeast Alabama into southwest Georgia

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 636...

   Valid 182219Z - 190015Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 636
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Two clusters of storms will likely continue southward late
   this afternoon. Damaging winds and marginally severe hail will
   remain possible. There is some potential for a downstream watch
   depending on convective trends.

   DISCUSSION...The most organized convection in WW 636 is moving
   southward along the GA/AL border. These storms have so far remained
   discrete and produced 1-1.75 inch hail and wind gusts of 36-50 kts
   recently. Farther west, in west-central Alabama, another cluster of
   storms is also moving south. These storms are being supported by
   lift within the base of a mid-level trough. Effective shear is 30-50
   kts (stronger to the west) and will continue to support organized
   storms. Low-level shear, however, is weaker and temperature-dewpoint
   spreads are near 30 F which is leading to outflow moving out ahead
   of convection (per KMXX radar imagery). There is some potential for
   this activity to persist south of WW 636 into portions of southern
   Alabama and southwest Georgia. Damaging wind gusts and marginally
   severe hail will remain possible. An additional watch may need to be
   considered depending on convective trends over the next 1-2 hours.

   ..Wendt/Guyer.. 08/18/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

   LAT...LON   31538384 31388464 31368614 31668804 32168818 33018788
               33148714 33088552 32868477 31978394 31538384