Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1945

   Mesoscale Discussion 1945
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0102 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

   Areas affected...northern NE and southern SD

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 572...

   Valid 120602Z - 120730Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 572
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A maturing bow will continue to yield a risk for
   higher-end wind potential over the next 1-2 hours as it moves into
   northern portions of NE.

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar imagery from KFSD/KUDX shows a potent
   cluster evolving into a maturing bow along the NE/SD border with
   echo tops increasing in the past 30 minutes to 60 kft.  The airmass
   remains very unstable per RAP forecast soundings (around 4000 J/kg
   MUCAPE) with modest lower to mid-level flow (20-25 kt) increasing to
   60 kt around 250 mb.  This thermodynamic/kinematic environment will
   continue to strongly favor severe gusts and a continuation of the
   mature phase of the bow echo through at least 2-3am CDT.  Recently
   measured gusts in the 90-95 mph range in southern SD are indicative
   of the higher-end wind potential.

   ..Smith.. 08/12/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...

   LAT...LON   43620019 43529937 43109832 42619832 42279885 42359984
               42770085 42950091 43180038 43620019 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...85-100 MPH