Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1944

   Mesoscale Discussion 1944
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1038 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

   Areas affected...Parts of south-central ND

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 570...

   Valid 120338Z - 120515Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 570
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The greatest threat for severe hail/wind in the short term
   should focus across a small part of south-central North Dakota,
   including the Bismarck area.

   DISCUSSION...A cluster of supercells is ongoing as of 0330Z across
   south-central ND, aided by a weak mid-level disturbance moving
   southeastward across the northern Plains. Given favorable deep-layer
   shear and enhanced (40-50+ kt) westerly flow at 6+ km AGL shown on
   the latest VWP from KBIS, this activity will likely maintain
   organization in the near term. Severe hail and damaging winds may
   occur, with strong inbound velocities approaching the Bismarck area
   on latest radar imagery. Very large hail up to 2 inches in diameter
   has recently been reported with the strongest core. Longer-term
   prospects for these supercells remain uncertain, as weaker
   instability and stronger MLCIN are present with eastward/southward
   extent into southeast ND and northern SD.

   ..Gleason.. 08/12/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BIS...

   LAT...LON   46840163 47060063 46949954 46549922 46259954 46200027
               46260102 46420159 46840163 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN