Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1940

   Mesoscale Discussion 1940
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0550 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024

   Areas affected...South-Central SD...North-Central/Central NE

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 633...

   Valid 181050Z - 181245Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 633
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Threat for large hail and strong gusts will continues
   across far south-central South Dakota and north-central/central
   Nebraska for the next few hours.

   DISCUSSION...Lead supercell within the elevated cluster of showers
   and thunderstorms extending from central SD into far north-central
   NE has maintained its intensity over the past hour while much of the
   other convection has weakened. Organized character of this storm
   suggests it will remain strong as it continues southeastward into
   more of north-central NE over the next hour or so. Thereafter,
   displacement from the warm-air advection responsible of this storm's
   initiation could result in a gradual weakening. Until this weakening
   begins, both large hail and strong gusts are possible with this
   storm.

   Farther southwest (i.e. across central NE), elevated thunderstorms
   continue to push eastward into central NE. These storms developed
   along the leading edge of the greater large-scale forcing for ascent
   attendant to a shortwave trough emerging into the central High
   Plains. Despite moderate buoyancy, these storms have been slow to
   strengthen. Some strengthening is possible over the next hour or so
   as forcing for ascent persists and vertical shear increases
   slightly. Large hail is the primary risk with these storms.

   ..Mosier.. 08/18/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...

   LAT...LON   43830005 43739840 42689760 41229830 41160076 43180075
               43830005