Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1932

   Mesoscale Discussion 1932
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0342 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

   Areas affected...portions of far northeastern Tennessee into western
   and central North Carolina

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 112042Z - 112245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Potential continues for isolated damaging wind gusts and
   marginally severe hail. Watch issuance is not anticipated.

   DISCUSSION...Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms remain
   ongoing along and south of a differential heating boundary/remnant
   outflow from northeastern Tennessee into western/central North
   Carolina. Weak effective shear (20 kts or less per latest objective
   analysis) is largely limiting storm organization, but 2500-3000 J/kg
   MLCAPE, modestly steep low-level lapse rates, and around 1.75" PW
   continue to support water loaded downbursts capable of producing
   isolated damaging wind gusts. Isolated instances of marginally
   severe hail have also been reported with the most robust cores
   within a zone of marginally steeper mid-level lapse rates (near 7
   C/km). This potential is expected to continue for at least another
   1-2 hours; however, watch issuance remains unlikely owing to the
   weak effective shear and resultant pulse-severe storm mode.

   ..Chalmers/Hart.. 08/11/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...GSP...MRX...

   LAT...LON   35208125 35378201 35728253 36158269 36468249 36608190
               36438096 36218024 36217975 36217921 36037891 35787882
               35467911 35237975 35088086 35208125 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN