Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1930

   Mesoscale Discussion 1930
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1231 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024

   Areas affected...Southern Ohio...Central Kentucky...Northern Middle
   Tennessee

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 171731Z - 171930Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms capable of damaging wind to
   increase in cover through the afternoon/evening.

   DISCUSSION...An increase in cumulus development is noted in visible
   satellite across portions of central Kentucky along and ahead of an
   approaching cold front across IL/IN. A cluster of elevated
   convection continues to move across areas north of Lexington, with
   objective analysis still indicated some MLCIN may remain in place
   across the region. Additional cells are also developing north of
   Bowling Green. Daytime heating has led to temperatures in the upper
   80s to 90s, with MLCAPE around 2500-3000 J/kg. As a mid-level speed
   max and large scale forcing spreads across this region this
   afternoon, further thunderstorm development is expected to continue
   through the afternoon and evening, with potential for locally
   gusty/damaging winds. Should storms intensify, a watch may be needed
   to cover this threat later in the afternoon.

   ..Thornton/Hart.. 08/17/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...

   LAT...LON   37098680 38078585 38908464 39628358 39688276 39618272
               38988277 38518290 38088303 36738459 36208583 36688694
               37098680