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| Mesoscale Discussion 1927 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 1927 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0921 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Areas affected...portions of eastern Oklahoma into far northwestern Arkansas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 628... Valid 170221Z - 170345Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 628 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 628, with a severe wind/hail threat persisting. Upscale growth into a more organized cluster of storms is possible, and local spatial/temporal extensions of the watch may be needed should this upscale growth occur. DISCUSSION...Multicells and supercells persist across northeast OK with a history of severe wind and hail. These storms are displaced slightly on the cool side of a convective outflow boundary that continues to surge southward in tandem with a leading convective complex in northwestern AR. MLCINH will increase through the evening given nocturnal cooling. However, the rate of MLCINH increase will be gradual given abundant low-level moisture, which is also contributing to 4000 J/kg MUCAPE. Given adequate deep-layer shear also in place, at least a short-term severe threat should persist. However, should storms catch up to and anchor along the leading outflow boundary while also merging cold pools, a more organized MCS could materialize with a persistent severe gust threat, and an occasional instance of large hail also possible. Should an MCS develop, temporal and/or spatial southward extensions of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 628 may be needed. ..Squitieri.. 08/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...OUN... LAT...LON 35369608 35889652 36499658 36869641 36989592 36959520 36779434 36449384 36149386 35739411 35259441 34839469 34579504 34549519 34959592 35369608 |
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