Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1922

   Mesoscale Discussion 1922
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0931 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

   Areas affected...northern and central Indiana

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 111431Z - 111630Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...The threat for severe weather is expected to increase this
   morning, likely necessitating a watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...A gradual increase in thunderstorms, including
   splitting supercell structures, has been observed over northwest IN
   over the past hour or so. That activity appears to be associated
   with a zone of warm advection occurring to the north of an outflow
   boundary extending from west-central through southeast IN. Regional
   12Z soundings sampled a strongly unstable environment in place this
   morning, which is likely to sustain the ongoing storms with some
   large hail and locally damaging wind potential. A greater severe
   weather threat, mainly in the form of damaging winds with
   significant gusts, is expected to move into the area from the
   northwest in association with a bowing MCS ongoing across
   north-central IL.

   ..Mead/Hart.. 08/11/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...

   LAT...LON   40568700 41298690 41738638 41688496 40808486 40168505
               39768545 39618586 40198692 40568700 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH