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Mesoscale Discussion 1922 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 1922 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Areas affected...Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles...western Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 162020Z - 162115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Marginal risk of strong to severe wind will be possible through the afternoon. DISCUSSION...Radar and visible satellite trends continue to show thunderstorm and cumulus development across portions of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles over the last hour. This suggests that capping has eroded, with temperatures exceeding 100 F in many locations. Dew points are in the low to mid 60s, with dew point depressions around 40 degrees. The environment is further characterized by MLCAPE around 1000-2000 J/kg, steep low to mid-level lapse rates, and weak deep layer shear. This will likely yield multi-cell clusters with potential for strong to severe winds. With the lack of deep layer shear for organization, a watch is unlikely to be needed. ..Thornton/Thompson.. 08/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA... LAT...LON 35499934 35739919 36149914 36489931 36639940 36750030 36920137 36910169 36920217 36950244 36760264 36700265 36300248 35750222 35200163 35189960 35499934 |
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