Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1917

   Mesoscale Discussion 1917
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1150 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

   Areas affected...Parts of southwest ND into west-central SD

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 562...

   Valid 110450Z - 110545Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 562
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A pair of widely spaced supercells will continue to pose a
   threat for very large hail and occasional severe gusts in the near
   term.

   DISCUSSION...A reservoir of strong instability amid enhanced
   west-northwesterly mid-level flow and related 45-55 kt of deep-layer
   shear will continue to support a pair of widely spaced intense
   supercells across southwest ND into west-central SD. Current
   expectations are for these supecells to pose mainly a large to very
   large hail threat in the near term (up to 1.5-2.5 inches in
   diameter) given the presence of very steep mid-level lapse rates and
   strong cloud-layer shear noted on the 00Z observed sounding from
   UNR. These cells should continue tracking southeastward, with
   occasional severe downdraft gusts also possible given the ample
   MUCAPE present. The potential for upscale growth into a bowing
   cluster with this ongoing activity remains highly uncertain, as
   stronger low-level flow and warm/moist advection related to a
   gradually strengthening low-level jet will tend to focus to the
   south/east of this region (NE into IA).

   ..Gleason.. 08/11/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...

   LAT...LON   46580259 46610171 45270092 43350073 43340145 44460188
               45920240 46580259 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN