Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1914

   Mesoscale Discussion 1914
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0847 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

   Areas affected...southeastern Missouri...southern Illinois...and
   western Kentucky

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 624...

   Valid 160147Z - 160345Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 624
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Local severe risk (hail/wind) continues across portions of
   the southern Illinois area, with additional strong storms
   approaching from the west.

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a continued/gradual decrease in
   overall convective coverage/intensity across southern Illinois,
   though one storm has evolved into a small, bowing cluster that has
   accelerated southward and is now in the process of beginning to
   cross the Ohio River into far western Kentucky.  Locally
   gusty/damaging winds and marginal hail will remain possible with
   this cluster, in the short term.

   Meanwhile, a separate area of strong/locally severe storms advancing
   eastward across the Ozarks will begin moving into western portions
   of WW 624 (out of WW 625) in the next hour.  With 2000 to 3000 J/kg
   mixed-layer CAPE indicated by RAP-based objective analysis across
   the WW area, expect this convection to remain capable of producing
   locally strong/damaging wind gusts over the next couple of hours.

   ..Goss.. 08/16/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...

   LAT...LON   36878782 36638907 36799177 37229219 38199156 38649030
               38358947 36878782