Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1913

   Mesoscale Discussion 1913
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0920 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

   Areas affected...Parts of southern AZ

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 561...

   Valid 110220Z - 110345Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 561
   continues.

   SUMMARY...An isolated threat for severe hail/wind continues this
   evening across parts of southern Arizona.

   DISCUSSION...Convection has tended to focus/spread slowly westward
   across southern AZ this evening, with modest (15-20 kt) easterly
   mid-level flow present on recent VWPs from KEMX. A measured severe
   gust to 66 mph was observed to the east of KTUS with a small cell,
   and any ongoing convection should also be capable of producing
   isolated severe gusts given the very well mixed boundary layer
   observed on the 00Z PHX sounding. In fact, modifying this sounding
   for the latest surface observations at KPHX (105/60F) suggests that
   minimal MLCIN is present at the moment. Still, given a dearth of
   upstream convection over the Mogollon Rim, appreciable severe wind
   risk in the near term will probably tend to remain fairly isolated
   and confined to parts of southern AZ with ongoing convection.
   Occasional hail may also occur with the strongest cores.

   ..Gleason.. 08/11/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TWC...PSR...

   LAT...LON   31951348 32581348 32761224 33051088 32730972 32470953
               32041015 31521182 31951348 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN