Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1911

   Mesoscale Discussion 1911
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0800 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

   Areas affected...Parts of northern IN into western OH

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 560...

   Valid 110100Z - 110230Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 560
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A severe hail/wind threat will expand east-southeastward
   across northern Indiana into western Ohio this evening.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have increased in coverage this evening
   across northern IN, likely aided by a weak mid-level disturbance
   noted on water vapor satellite imagery upstream across IL. Initial
   cells have undergone mergers, with multiple clusters ongoing. Ample
   low-level moisture and related very strong buoyancy will continue to
   support vigorous updrafts, even though stronger mid-level flow and
   related deep-layer shear will tend to remain a bit displaced to the
   north of the surface warm sector. Even so, enough shear should be
   present to support a mix of supercells and multicells in the short
   term (reference recent VWPs from KIWX). Severe hail generally up to
   1-1.5 inches in diameter will be possible with any cells that can
   remain at least semi-discrete, while damaging winds may occur with
   any small clusters moving east-southeastward. An increase in the
   severe wind potential may develop across parts of northeast IN into
   northwest OH if a more dominant cluster can become established, as
   some short-term guidance suggests.

   ..Gleason.. 08/11/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...

   LAT...LON   41528662 41648555 41388421 40668325 40058350 40048481
               40538634 41198741 41528662 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN