Mesoscale Discussion 1903 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0709 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Areas affected...portions of northeastern Kansas and southeastern Nebraska...and into southwestern Iowa and northwestern Missouri Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 622... Valid 150009Z - 150145Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 622 continues. SUMMARY...A few severe storms -- including a persistent supercell -- are now ongoing across portions of WW 622 near the northeast Kansas/southeast Nebraska border. Large hail remains the primary threat, though a damaging outflow gust and/or brief tornado are also possible. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop across the Mid-MO Valley area shows several vigorous updrafts, a couple of which have exhibited transient rotational signatures per area WSR-88D data. The most organized/long-lived cell is moving northeastward across Gage County, though this storm too now appears to be weakening. Overall, the environment supports strong/rotating storms; the combination of a moist (70s dewpoints) and very unstable (3000-plus J/kg mixed-layer CAPE) environment, combined with the presence of a northwest-to-southeast remnant outflow providing focused low-level ascent, suggests additional strong/severe storm development over the next couple of hours. In addition, recent CAM output continues to hint at potential for storm development near/ahead of a surface cold front slowly advancing across central Nebraska, which would be expected to move into/across northwestern portions of WW 622 later this evening. Given a similarly sheared/unstable environment ahead of the front, potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts would likely accompany these storms, presuming development as anticipated. ..Goss.. 08/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 38889796 39529703 40229695 40769638 40979568 40249512 39359533 38699641 38639754 38889796
Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1903
14
Aug