Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1902

   Mesoscale Discussion 1902
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0319 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

   Areas affected...New York City vicinity through New Jersey into
   Delaware

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 556...

   Valid 102019Z - 102215Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 556
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The threat for damaging wind gusts may increase into early
   evening as storms approach the coast.

   DISCUSSION...So far this afternoon, thunderstorms in southeast NY
   and eastern PA have remained disorganized within a broader band of
   lower reflectivity, presumably due to poor lapse rate profiles.
   Ahead of the ongoing storms, temperatures have warmed into the mid
   80s to lower 90s with latest objective analysis indicating a
   corridor of steeper low-level lapse rates, which may support some
   storm organization into early evening, given the presence of 35-40
   kt of westerly deep-layer shear.

   ..Mead.. 08/10/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...

   LAT...LON   40307519 41067469 41167442 41047404 40327395 39317446
               39077478 38697517 38867557 39547567 40307519 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH