Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1902

   Mesoscale Discussion 1902
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0357 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

   Areas affected...Portions of northeast KS...southeast NE...far
   northwest MO...and far southwest IA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 142057Z - 142330Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...The area is being monitored for increasing severe
   potential this afternoon into the evening. Timing of thunderstorm
   development is uncertain, though an eventual watch issuance appears
   likely for parts of the area.

   DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis depicts a warm front/modifying
   outflow boundary extending east-southeastward across northeast KS --
   from a weak frontal-wave low over north-central KS. North of the
   boundary, billow clouds continue to erode from south to north as the
   antecedent outflow continues to destabilize amid strong diurnal
   heating. Here, steep mid-level lapse rates atop rich/sheltered
   boundary-layer moisture (upper 60s/lower 70s dewpoints) will result
   in strong surface-based instability. However, additional heating
   will be needed (especially with northward extent) to erode lingering
   inhibition (see OAX 19Z special sounding). 

   Thunderstorms should eventually initiate near the frontal-wave low,
   near the warm front, and possibly to the north along a differential
   heating boundary, possibly aided by an approaching midlevel trough.
   Storms will spread eastward into the increasingly favorable
   environment -- characterized by 30-40 kt of effective shear, strong
   instability, and clockwise-curved low-level hodographs (200-300
   m2/s2 effective SRH). This will favor organized storms, including
   the potential for supercells and organized clusters, capable of
   damaging winds, large hail, and perhaps a couple tornadoes.

   Timing of thunderstorm development and intensification is still
   uncertain, though an eventual watch issuance is likely for parts of
   the area.

   ..Weinman/Thompson.. 08/14/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

   LAT...LON   38899778 39289797 39729796 40439769 41109738 41429716
               41479676 41429591 41109560 40169532 39629532 39279555
               38769605 38569643 38499682 38659739 38899778