Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1900

   Mesoscale Discussion 1900
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0200 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

   Areas affected...southeast West Virginia into western Virginia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 101900Z - 102100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...The potential for at least isolated damaging wind gusts
   may increase over the next one to two hours. Convective trends are
   being monitored for a possible severe thunderstorm watch.

   DISCUSSION...A line of thunderstorms over central WV has recently
   shown a weakened trend, per volumetric radar data, with the
   associated cold pool moving south-southeast at 40-45 kt. Additional
   showers and thunderstorms are developing ahead of the gust front,
   and it's possible that activity could reinforce the cold pool,
   leading to the re-intensification of the thunderstorm line. That
   process may be aided by stronger heating across the downstream air
   mass where objective analysis indicates comparatively steeper
   low-level lapse rates with MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg.

   Given the above considerations, the threat for at least isolated
   damaging wind gusts may increase over the next 1-2 hours. However,
   it's unclear whether sufficient storm organization will occur to
   warrant a severe thunderstorm watch.

   ..Mead/Hart.. 08/10/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...RNK...

   LAT...LON   37418112 37838072 38018052 38018001 38037949 37507891
               37017900 36757928 36647999 36718073 36798124 37128135
               37418112 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH