Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1897

   Mesoscale Discussion 1897
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1238 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

   Areas affected...south-central New York into portions of central and
   eastern Pennsylvania

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 552...553...

   Valid 101738Z - 101945Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 552, 553
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The threat for mainly damaging winds is expected to
   increase from central into eastern Pennsylvania and locations
   farther east. An additional downstream watch will likely be
   required.

   DISCUSSION...A transition from a line into more cellular convection
   has occurred over the past 1-2 hours from the vicinity of an MCV
   over north-central PA into central PA. Storm mode and poor low-level
   lapse rates have limited damaging wind potential thus far with the
   cellular convection. With time, coalescing storm-scale cold pools,
   40 kt of westerly deep-layer shear, and continued heating/
   destabilization of the inflow air mass should support increasing
   damaging wind potential from central into eastern PA, and eventually
   NJ and the lower Hudson Valley. As such, a downstream severe
   thunderstorm watch will likely be required.

   ..Mead/Hart.. 08/10/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...

   LAT...LON   40227896 40827812 41417794 41947767 42317747 42437681
               42257593 41537363 40957343 39857422 39777597 39747716
               39757827 39767896 39837912 40227896 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN