Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1893

   Mesoscale Discussion 1893
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0829 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

   Areas affected...southeast Pennsylvania...northeast
   Maryland...northern Delaware...and southern New Jersey

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 101329Z - 101500Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Damaging wind potential may increase with an ongoing MCS.
   Convective trends are being monitored for a possible severe
   thunderstorm watch.

   DISCUSSION...As of 1325Z, radar imagery showed a small MCS with a
   leading bow structure moving through Lebanon and Lancaster Counties
   in southeast PA at around 30 kt. The system has a history of
   producing wind damage; however, recent radar trends indicate
   decreasing echo heights, potentially suggesting a weakening trend.
   Visible satellite shows cloud-free skies ahead of the MCS with
   temperatures already around 80 degrees observed within the inflow
   air mass. Modification of the 12Z PIT sounding for similar
   boundary-layer conditions suggests that only minimal convective
   inhibition exists for surface-based parcels. As such, it's possible
   the MCS could restrengthen within the next hour or so with an
   increased potential for damaging winds.

   ..Mead/Hart.. 08/10/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...LWX...

   LAT...LON   40247720 40527662 40437525 40207420 39827398 39457409
               39397467 39517593 39637700 40247720 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH