Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1888

   Mesoscale Discussion 1888
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0513 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

   Areas affected...North-central Montana

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 122213Z - 130015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A potential will exist for marginally severe gusts and
   hail early this evening across parts of north-central Montana. No
   watch issuance is anticipated.

   DISCUSSION...The latest water-vapor imagery shows a subtle shortwave
   trough over the northern Rockies, embedded in southwest mid-level
   flow. At the surface, a mesolow is analyzed over north-central
   Montana, with upslope east-southeasterly flow located across much of
   northern and eastern Montana. Isolated thunderstorms have developed
   near and to the north of the low along a narrow corridor of
   instability, where the RAP is estimating SBCAPE in the 1000 to 1500
   J/kg range. Short-term forecast soundings in north-central Montana
   early this evening have a relatively dry boundary layer, but show
   steep lapse rates and moderate deep-layer shear. This may be enough
   for a marginal severe threat for a few hours. Strong gusts and hail
   will be possible.

   ..Broyles/Edwards.. 08/12/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GGW...TFX...

   LAT...LON   47221015 47150938 47340862 47740811 48320827 48880909
               48961048 48861165 48541205 48011188 47221015