Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1887

   Mesoscale Discussion 1887
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0353 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

   Areas affected...Portions of northeast NM...southeast CO...and the
   far western OK Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 122053Z - 122300Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...An increase in thunderstorm coverage and intensity is
   expected during the next few hours. The severe risk appears too
   limited for a watch at this time.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms should gradually increase in coverage
   across portions of southeastern CO and northeastern NM during the
   next few hours, as ample diurnal heating continues to erode
   convective inhibition across the area. Moist, east-southeasterly
   low-level flow beneath strengthening westerly flow aloft, will yield
   weak/moderate surface-based instability (increasing with eastward
   extent) and around 30-40 kt of effective shear (characterized by a
   mostly straight hodograph). This will support the potential for a
   couple organized eastward-spreading clusters and/or semi-discrete
   supercell structures. Isolated large hail (generally up to 1.5
   inches) and locally severe gusts (55-65 mph) will be possible with
   the more robust activity. Overall, the severe risk appears too
   limited for a watch at this time, though convective trends will be
   monitored.

   ..Weinman/Mosier.. 08/12/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   36010470 36310483 37250482 37850460 38260413 38320332
               38040282 37440257 36760263 36170308 36000341 35880395
               36010470