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| Mesoscale Discussion 1873 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 1873 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0926 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Areas affected...Parts of MD/DE/NJ...eastern PA...central/eastern NY Concerning...Tornado Watch 616... Valid 091426Z - 091600Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 616 continues. SUMMARY...Some threat for locally damaging wind and a couple tornadoes will continue through the morning. Some expansion of the threat to the north is possible with time. DISCUSSION...Relatively shallow but strongly sheared convection is ongoing from parts of the Mid Atlantic into the Northeast, to the east of P.T.C. Debby. Area VWPs indicate that the stronger low/midlevel wind field is translating northward in association with Debby's fast-moving circulation, with weakening flow noted from KAKQ and KLWX, but strengthening flow farther to the northeast. A warm front extending east/northeast of Debby will translate northward through the day, though its progress may be slowed to some extent by widespread cloudiness/precipitation. Near and south of the warm front, tropical moisture will support MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg, with locally greater buoyancy possible where some filtered heating is ongoing from eastern PA into NJ and southeast NY. Very weak midlevel lapse rates may continue to limit updraft intensity and organization to some extent, but strong low/midlevel flow and 0-1 km SRH of 200-300 m2/s2 (locally greater near the surface low and warm front) will support potential for rotation with the stronger cells and line segments. A few tornadoes remain possible from late this morning into the afternoon, along with some potential for convectively enhanced wind damage. Some threat may eventually spread north of WW 616 in conjunction with the warm front, and additional watch issuance is possible later today. ..Dean/Goss.. 08/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...BUF...CTP... LWX... LAT...LON 39367704 40257779 41387716 42677658 43207590 43397466 43367351 43337314 42527342 42087346 41707358 39847439 38727497 38227511 38027526 38037577 38357627 39027679 39367704 |
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