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| Mesoscale Discussion 1871 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 1871 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1004 PM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Areas affected...Middle Atlantic Concerning...Tornado Watch 615... Valid 090304Z - 090500Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 615 continues. SUMMARY...Severe threat will gradually spread into extreme southern Pennsylvania over the next several hours. However, this threat will be limited by weaker buoyancy. DISCUSSION...Tropical warm sector is gradually advancing north across the Delmarva, per mid 70s surface dew points approaching southeast PA. Latest diagnostic data suggests a fairly well-defined boundary extends from central NJ-extreme southeast PA-northern VA. Low-level shear has also increased at CCX where 0-3km SRH is now around 350 m2/s2. Strongest updrafts have been confined to the tropical warm sector and this will likely continue as buoyancy is quite limited north of the boundary. Given the poor lapse rates, it appears mid 70s dew points may be necessary for robust, longer-lived updrafts. If/until this air mass spreads north, confidence is not particularly high enough to warrant a new tornado watch. However, will continue to monitor this transition zone for recovery north of ww615. ..Darrow.. 08/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...LWX... LAT...LON 39717828 40157663 40057569 39487574 39137695 38977813 39717828 |
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