Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1869

   Mesoscale Discussion 1869
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0510 PM CDT Sat Aug 08 2026

   Areas affected...Portions of the Carolinas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 082210Z - 090015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Sporadic damaging winds will be possible for the next
   couple of hours across parts of South Carolina and western/central
   North Carolina. Watch issuance is not expected.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have been slowly intensifying along the
   Appalachians over the past 2-3 hours per regional radar imagery and
   lightning trends. More recently, much of this activity has exhibited
   strong outflow - a manifestation of the poor kinematic environment
   (also confirmed by regional VWPs). Furthermore, west/southwesterly
   mid-level flow is favoring storm motions along the zone of ascent,
   which is limiting southeastward propagation into a more deeply-mixed
   and buoyant air mass (characterized by 0-3 km lapse rates near 8
   C/km and around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE). 

   Nonetheless, some degree of storm propagation into the
   well-mixed/buoyant air is probable as outflows surge
   south/southeastward and collide. Convection developing within this
   regime will be capable of produce strong downbursts with embedded
   swaths of damaging winds (most likely 45-60 mph). Confidence in the
   coverage and/or duration of intense convection is very limited and
   precludes watch issuance, but a few instances of wind damage appear
   possible over the next couple of hours prior to the onset of
   nocturnal cooling after 00 UTC.

   ..Moore/Mosier.. 08/08/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP...

   LAT...LON   34968342 35508210 35808121 35868059 36018005 36197951
               36347908 36267869 35997862 35757882 35527928 35198026
               34648175 34578223 34558264 34588304 34648338 34838348
               34968342 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH