Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1864

   Mesoscale Discussion 1864
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0447 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024

   Areas affected...Eastern NC into southeast VA

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 613...

   Valid 080947Z - 081145Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 613 continues.

   SUMMARY...The threat for a few tornadoes will continue through and
   after dawn.

   DISCUSSION...Multiple small but tornadic supercells have moved
   across parts of eastern NC early this morning, within the
   northeastern quadrant of Tropical Storm Debby. Thus far, the
   tornadic cells have occurred along the eastern periphery of a larger
   precipitation shield, where rich moisture and upper 70s F
   temperatures are supporting MLCAPE of greater than 500 J/kg. Some
   increase in low-level flow has been noted from the KRAX and KMHX
   VWPs, with 0-1 km SRH of 200-350 m2/s2 for observed storm motions.
   This magnitude of low-level shear/SRH will continue to support
   tornado potential with any sustained supercell structures through
   and after dawn. 

   The greatest short-term threat may continue in the vicinity of a
   convective band from east of Raleigh to near/west of Morehead City.
   However, the threat may expand to the north and east with time, into
   areas where little precipitation is currently occurring, and
   somewhat stronger destabilization will be possible after sunrise. An
   eventual increase in tornado threat is also possible to the west of
   WW 613, depending on trends regarding ongoing precipitation and
   potential for modest destabilization.

   ..Dean.. 08/08/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

   LAT...LON   36167904 36857767 37357631 36447563 35917538 35477544
               34697619 34427693 34337760 35217924 35937935 36167904