Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1864

   Mesoscale Discussion 1864
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0208 PM CDT Sat Aug 08 2026

   Areas affected...Northern Virginia into the DelMarVa

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 081908Z - 082045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated wind damage is possible this afternoon where
   low-level lapse rates remain steep south of convective outflow. A
   watch is not anticipated this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Isolated cells near the Blue Ridge will continue
   eastward this afternoon. Pockets of steep low-level lapse rates will
   promote potential for isolated strong/damaging wind gusts. The main
   corridor or risk will occur along and south of an outflow boundary
   that is currently near Washington DC eastward into central/southern
   Delaware. 0-6 km shear off of the KLWX VAD is around 35 kts which
   would support marginally organized storms. The threat is likely to
   remain isolated unless clustering can occur.

   ..Wendt/Hart.. 08/08/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...

   LAT...LON   39097834 39387816 39327721 38777643 38497600 38367533
               37697566 37687627 37817699 38097787 38517872 39097834 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH