Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1855

   Mesoscale Discussion 1855
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0155 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024

   Areas affected...Southeast NC into extreme northeast SC

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 070655Z - 071000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A brief tornado or two will be possible overnight.

   DISCUSSION...A band of convection along the east/northeast periphery
   of Tropical Storm Debby's circulation has become somewhat more
   well-defined early this morning. A theta-e/instability gradient
   persists near the coast, with a narrow inland zone of MLCAPE near
   1000 J/kg noted (per recent objective mesoanalyses and a modified
   06Z sounding from KMHX) where temperatures remain near 80 F. 

   The 06Z MHX sounding and recent VWPs from KMHX/KLTX depict 0-1 km
   SRH of around 150-200 m2/s2 for observed cell motions, which is
   sufficient to support at least transient low-level rotation with the
   strongest cells. While ongoing convection has generally struggled to
   become organized, a brief tornado or two cannot be ruled out
   overnight as stronger embedded cells within the primary convective
   band move inland and cross the near-coastal baroclinic zone.

   ..Dean/Edwards.. 08/07/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MHX...ILM...

   LAT...LON   34147884 34387852 35037745 35037690 34857667 34427693
               33847770 33627823 33527882 33797896 34147884