Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1854

   Mesoscale Discussion 1854
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0304 PM CDT Fri Aug 07 2026

   Areas affected...Parts of eastern PA...northern/central
   NJ...southeastern NY...and far western CT

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 540...

   Valid 072004Z - 072200Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 540
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The risk of scattered damaging wind gusts will continue
   spreading east-northeastward across parts of Severe Thunderstorm
   Watch 540.

   DISCUSSION...A loosely organized band of thunderstorms is advancing
   east-northeastward across eastern PA and southeastern NY this
   afternoon, where there have been several reports of wind damage.
   This activity will continue spreading east-northeastward into an
   increasingly warm/unstable PBL (lower 90s temperatures amid
   lower/middle 70s dewpoints). Steepened low-level lapse rates and the
   well-established/strengthening cold pools will promote an increasing
   risk of scattered damaging wind gusts over the next few hours. To
   the north of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 540 in southeastern NY, a
   narrow spatial overlap of sufficient/modest destabilization and
   midlevel height falls will support a localized risk for damaging
   thunderstorm wind gusts through the afternoon. A downstream watch is
   not currently expected.

   ..Weinman.. 08/07/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...

   LAT...LON   40257575 40727538 41277484 41767455 42017446 42187411
               42097371 41737343 41447331 40977349 40297403 39787476
               39657520 39717550 39927568 40257575 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN