Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1850

   Mesoscale Discussion 1850
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1052 AM CDT Fri Aug 07 2026

   Areas affected...southern Minnesota into northern Iowa

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 071552Z - 071715Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Over the next several hours, storms may produce hail above
   severe limits from southern Minnesota into northern Iowa.

   DISCUSSION...An area of elevated storms has develop this morning
   over southern MN, with indications of hail. These storms are firmly
   within a zone of 850 mb theta-e advection out of the southwest, well
   ahead of the surface cold front. This warming/moistening is also
   occurring beneath relatively cool midlevel temperatures with -10 C
   at 500 mb measured on soundings. Given persistent southwest flow at
   850 mb and eventual heating of the surface instability plume from NE
   into IA, these storms may persist for a few more hours, with brief
   bouts of hail over 1.00".

   ..Jewell.. 08/07/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...

   LAT...LON   42749516 43149481 43759469 44189483 44629507 44999509
               45299464 45369413 45129323 44779291 44279275 43549273
               43149297 42609408 42489498 42749516 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN