Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1849

   Mesoscale Discussion 1849
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0839 AM CDT Fri Aug 07 2026

   Areas affected...Parts of eastern Kansas into northern Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 071339Z - 071515Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...The risk of severe hail will continue for the next couple
   of hours.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are ongoing on the backside of earlier
   convection, aided by a a 35 kt LLJ (sampled by ICT VWP) and related
   low-level warm-air advection. Steep midlevel lapse rates (per the
   OUN 12Z sounding) atop a statically stable boundary layer are
   contributing to sufficient elevated buoyancy for the continuation of
   a few robust cells. This, combined with 40-50 kt of effective shear,
   may continue to support transient organization and a risk of severe
   hail over the next couple of hours. However, current expectations
   are for a gradual weakening of the LLJ, which should limit the
   duration of the severe risk.

   ..Weinman/Gleason.. 08/07/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

   LAT...LON   36759778 37029795 37459778 37999739 39049700 39199675
               39259646 39219617 39009586 38339584 37559612 36979646
               36529710 36519749 36759778 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN