Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1842

   Mesoscale Discussion 1842
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0959 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024

   Areas affected...portions of northeast Ohio into central
   Pennsylvania

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 061459Z - 061630Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...The severe threat should increase through early afternoon.
   Multiple rounds of storms are possible, with damaging gusts as the
   main threat, though a couple of tornadoes are also possible. A WW
   issuance will eventually be needed.

   DISCUSSION...Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are percolating in
   intensity as they traverse a pronounced west-to-east oriented
   baroclinic boundary positioned from eastern OH into central PA. With
   continued surface heating and the approach of a 500 mb vort max over
   the Great Lakes, storms should continue to increase in coverage and
   intensity into early afternoon. 40+ kts of effective bulk shear,
   driven by strengthening 700-500 mb flow approaching from the west,
   will support organized updrafts amid 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. More
   discrete storms could become supercellular, posing the threat for
   damaging gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes or instances of
   large hail. It is also possible that an MCS (perhaps even a bow
   echo) could develop over central PA later today, which could support
   a corridor of narrow but focused damaging gusts along the baroclinic
   boundary. 

   A WW issuance will likely be needed in the next couple of hours to
   address the increasing severe threat.

   ..Squitieri/Hart.. 08/06/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

   LAT...LON   41498280 41448208 41728118 41737968 41347696 40887620
               40437635 40177689 40247830 40398002 40748142 40948220
               41058278 41498280