Mesoscale Discussion 1839
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0900 PM CDT Wed Aug 05 2026
Areas affected...Eastern KS into western/northern MO
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 060200Z - 060400Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Strong to severe storm development is possible through the
late evening. Watch issuance is possible.
DISCUSSION...A nearly stationary frontal zone is draped from
northern OK into southeast KS this evening, with cool but very moist
conditions observed north of the boundary, and hot/well-mixed
conditions south of the front. North of this front, a diffuse
baroclinic zone (augmented by outflow from persistent weak
convection and differential heating) extends from east-central KS
into western/northern MO.
While some MLCINH remains across the area, MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg
and effective shear of 35-45 kt are conditionally supportive of
organized convection, if any storms can mature within this
environment. One storm has recently intensified east of Wichita,
with gradually increasing convective showers noted farther north
into east-central KS. Strengthening low-level warm advection and the
approach of a low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough (currently
over western KS) will favor increasing storm coverage across eastern
KS, which will then move into western MO with time.
Initial storms within the warm-advection regime could evolve into
supercells, with some potential for hail, damaging wind, and
possibly a brief tornado. However, relatively modest low/midlevel
lapse rates may limit the magnitude of the threat to some extent. A
tendency for storm clustering is expected by late evening as storms
approach western MO. While convection may tend to become
increasingly elevated with time, any organized clustering could
result in an uptick in damaging-wind potential. Watch issuance is
possible if short-term trends support a sustained organized-severe
threat.
..Dean/Hart.. 08/06/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON 38929715 39359572 39589300 39439247 38549226 37859242
37359305 37339547 37299621 37779670 38379699 38929715
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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