Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1838

   Mesoscale Discussion 1838
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0226 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024

   Areas affected...Southeast WI...far northeast IL...southwest lower
   MI...southern Lake Michigan

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 060726Z - 060930Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated strong/damaging gusts remain possible early this
   morning.

   DISCUSSION...A long-lived storm cluster is currently moving across
   southeast WI, with a recent history of localized wind gusts in the
   40-45 kt range. While this cluster has weakened somewhat as it has
   moved into a less unstable environment, a notable pressure
   perturbation persists, as noted by a relatively sharp pressure
   rise/fall couplet and earlier easterly 46 kt gust at KMSN. 

   This cluster may persist overnight as it moves east-southeastward
   along a low-level baroclinic zone, aided by a rather strong
   nocturnal low-level jet. While substantial low-level stability will
   tend to limit a more widespread severe threat, isolated
   strong/damaging gusts remain possible early this morning, especially
   if the ongoing cluster can propagate into a somewhat more moist and
   unstable environment across southwest lower MI.

   ..Dean/Edwards.. 08/06/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...LOT...MKX...

   LAT...LON   42268890 42968876 43178823 43138706 43028626 42778562
               42488564 42258564 41878607 42088743 42268890