Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1830

   Mesoscale Discussion 1830
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0509 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024

   Areas affected...eastern Iowa...northern Illinois...southern
   Wisconsin

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 052209Z - 052315Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe threat to increase this evening. Damaging winds,
   large hail, and a tornado are possible.

   DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a front extending across the
   upper Ohio River Valley into portions of the Midwest. Visible
   satellite shows cu development along this boundary in eastern Iowa
   and northern Illinois, with a few cells now on radar south of
   Chicago and north of Davenport. The environment in this region is
   characterized by MLCAPE around 2000-2500 J/kg and deep layer shear
   along and north of the boundary around 40-45 kts. The 19z sounding
   profile from DVN further supports this, with around 2300 J/kg
   MLCAPE. Shear profiles are somewhat weak in the low-levels, with
   around 25-50 m2/s2 0-1km SRH in surface objective analysis. However,
   low level shear should increase through time to around 100-200 m2/s2
   per RAP forecasts. CAM guidance suggests a few supercells could
   develop, with potential for large hail, damaging wind, and perhaps a
   tornado. A watch may be needed to cover this threat for portions of
   this area in the next 1-2 hours.

   ..Thornton/Smith.. 08/05/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...

   LAT...LON   43429220 43519112 43619009 43618941 43258800 42978748
               42628719 42228731 41728765 41408790 41248838 41328934
               41599001 41999155 42199232 42899275 43429220