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| Mesoscale Discussion 1824 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 1824
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1148 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024
Areas affected...northeast Ohio...northwest and north-central
Pennsylvania...western and central New York.
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 051648Z - 051815Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon/evening with a threat for large hail and damaging wind
gusts.
DISCUSSION...Destabilization is underway from northern Ohio into
southern New York where temperatures have warmed into the mid 80s
with dewpoints near 70F. Weak confluence in the vicinity if a
stationary front across the region, in addition to some lake-breeze
convergence, will be the primary focus for convective initiation as
a weak mid-level shortwave trough approaches the region from the
west. Moderate west-northwesterly shear (40 to 45 knots) will
support supercells with the threat for large hail and damaging wind
gusts.
..Bentley/Hart.. 08/05/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...
LAT...LON 41018217 41888171 42617947 42937903 43187840 43257653
43087584 42137597 41187859 40968019 40718141 41018217
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