Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1821

   Mesoscale Discussion 1821
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1154 AM CDT Sun Aug 02 2026

   Areas affected...portions of western NY

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 021654Z - 021830Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated risk for damaging wind gusts and perhaps a
   tornado will skirt the international border near Lake
   Ontario/western New York the next couple hours.

   DISCUSSION...A bowing thunderstorm cluster has developed along a
   surface boundary near the international border/western NY. The
   downstream airmass is relatively cool, but moist, resulting in weak
   instability. However, low-level SRH is enhanced along the surface
   boundary and in proximity to the larger-scale surface low across the
   region. While instability is expected to remain weak, 30-40 kt
   effective shear magnitudes will support at least occasional storm
   organization. Most of the stronger convection will likely remain
   over Lake Ontario and or across the international border. However,
   this stronger bowing cluster could skirt the western NY/Lake Ontario
   shoreline over the next hour or two, resulting in a low risk for
   damaging gusts or perhaps a brief tornado.

   ..Leitman/Mosier.. 08/02/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BUF...

   LAT...LON   43447943 44107714 44127630 43797586 43427596 43127695
               42907828 42957902 43037934 43447943 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH