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| Mesoscale Discussion 1817 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 1817
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0507 PM CDT Sun Aug 04 2024
Areas affected...central and eastern Montana...western Dakotas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 042207Z - 050000Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Storms capable of damaging wind to increase through the
afternoon/evening.
DISCUSSION...A shortwave moving eastward across Montana this
afternoon will provide forcing for ascent to erode MLCIN and result
in thunderstorm development over the next few hours. Across
central/eastern Montana, daytime heating has yielded MLCAPE around
1000 J/kg. Surface objective analysis and forecast soundings also
show profiles with steep low to mid-level lapse rates, deeply mixed
profiles, and large dew point depressions which all favor downward
momentum transfer. Deep layer shear 30-40 kts should provide
organization for storms to grow upscale and present risk of damaging
wind. A watch may be needed in the next couple of hours.
..Thornton/Smith.. 08/04/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...RIW...
LAT...LON 45291035 46300982 46830821 46880619 46820505 46640392
46410358 45940359 45710365 45400391 45220427 45050504
45010572 44980656 44980762 44920981 44881010 45291035
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