Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1817

   Mesoscale Discussion 1817
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0157 PM CDT Sat Aug 01 2026

   Areas affected...portions of New Mexico

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 011857Z - 012100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms coverage will increase through the
   afternoon. A few storms could produce strong outflow wind gusts or
   marginal hail. A watch is not currently expected.

   DISCUSSION...Strong heating has allowed temperatures to warm into
   the 80s to low 90s across lower elevated in central/eastern NM early
   this afternoon. Coupled with steep mid and low-level lapse rates,
   modest destabilization has occurred, while inhibition continues to
   erode. Low-level winds have largely become east/southeasterly in the
   post-frontal upslope flow regime. This is resulting in initial early
   afternoon convection over higher terrain. Moderate northerly flow
   aloft is supporting in sufficient vertical shear for loosely
   organized cells. 

   This initial activity may be capable of small/marginally severe
   hail, particularly across the northern half of the MCD area where
   midlevel temperatures are cooler through the bulk of the elevated
   instability layer. As storms track south with time across the hotter
   and steep low-level lapse rates environment in lower elevations,
   sporadic strong outflow gusts will be possible. Given the overall
   marginal parameter space and transient nature of any stronger
   updrafts, a watch is not currently expected.

   ..Leitman/Mosier.. 08/01/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

   LAT...LON   36410520 36720430 36640394 36020363 35190362 34570365
               33800369 32720424 32260471 31980601 31980737 32020812
               32220833 32740848 34720728 35230678 36410520 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN