Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1815

   Mesoscale Discussion 1815
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1109 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

   Areas affected...parts of southeastern Missouri

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 536...

   Valid 010409Z - 010615Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 536 continues.

   SUMMARY...Localized damaging wind gusts and/or a brief tornado may
   still be possible with an evolving storm northwest through north of
   Poplar Bluff through midnight-1 AM CDT.

   DISCUSSION...Downstream of the notable short wave trough digging
   into the middle Mississippi Valley, lingering thunderstorm
   development has been tending to spread east of a narrowing pre-cold
   frontal instability axis supported by mid/upper 70s F surface dew
   points.  Even with surface dew points only gradually decreasing
   through the lower 70s to the east of this axis, forecast soundings
   indicate that CAPE becomes increasingly modest, with near-surface
   buoyancy becoming negligible.  As one strong cell, with an evolving
   broad low-level cyclonic circulation, increasingly encountered this
   environment to the east of the Farmington vicinity it has tended to
   substantively weaken.  A trailing vigorous upstream cell seems
   likely to do the same within the next hour or two, to the
   west/southwest of Cape Girardeau.  Until then though, some further
   intensification and organization might still be possible in the near
   term to the northwest through north of Poplar Bluff, perhaps
   accompanied by locally damaging wind gusts or a brief tornado.

   ..Kerr.. 08/01/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...

   LAT...LON   37449082 37519008 37128968 36639013 36719018 36649083
               37279131 37449082 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH