Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1814

   Mesoscale Discussion 1814
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1234 PM CDT Sun Aug 04 2024

   Areas affected...far northern New York eastward into Maine

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 041734Z - 042000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Some storms may produce localized hail, primarily at or
   below severe levels, over the next several hours.

   DISCUSSION...On the periphery of an upper trough over Quebec,
   relatively cool midlevel temperatures extend southward into parts of
   New England. Daytime heating near a surface trough and also north of
   a more extensive cirrus shield is resulting in moderate
   destabilization from northern NY eastward into parts of ME.

   Wind profiles do not favor particularly organized storms, as winds
   below 500 mb are weak. However, stronger speeds exist in the upper
   levels which may aid venting somewhat.

   Overall, it appears that short-lived, strong storm cores capable of
   marginally severe hail will be the primary risk with these cells
   over the next few hours as they travel east/southeast across the
   narrow instability zone.

   ..Jewell.. 08/04/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

   LAT...LON   46146811 45056885 44496990 43337395 43437523 43887520
               44297473 44957381 45057191 45567106 46167035 46696902
               46486817 46146811