Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1813

   Mesoscale Discussion 1813
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0530 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

   Areas affected...portions of central and eastern Missouri

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 536...

   Valid 312230Z - 010000Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 536 continues.

   SUMMARY...The potential for a tornado or two and damaging wind gusts
   continues across portions of Tornado Watch 536.

   DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms have developed along/ahead of a
   southeastward-progressing surface cold front and accompanying
   pre-frontal confluence zone over the past 1-2 hours in central
   Missouri. Continued northeasterly advection of higher theta-e air
   within the narrow warm sector is supporting MLCAPE values of
   1500-2500+ J/kg and 0-3 km CAPE of 100+ J/kg per latest
   mesoanalysis. Surface dewpoints in the mid/upper 70s F, low LCLs,
   and a corridor of enhanced low-level shear (200 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH
   sampled by the LSX VWP) will continue to promote a risk for a
   tornado or two along with damaging wind gusts as convection
   progresses east-southeastward over the next 1-2 hours. The greatest
   potential is likely to accompany any storm that can favorably
   interact with a surface stationary/warm frontal boundary currently
   analyzed near the MO/IL border and the more backed surfaced winds
   noted in closer proximity to this boundary.

   ..Chalmers.. 07/31/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...

   LAT...LON   38249070 37699079 37349120 37219184 37289246 37539271
               38159302 38569303 38919293 39409270 39759243 39889201
               39859153 39689121 39319099 38669073 38249070 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN