Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1806

   Mesoscale Discussion 1806
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0541 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

   Areas affected...much of central Nebraska

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 533...

   Valid 302241Z - 302345Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 533
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A growing and organizing cluster of storms accompanied by
   increasing potential to produce swaths of strong to severe wind
   gusts appears probable through 7-9 PM CDT.  Trends are being
   monitored for the possibility of an additional severe weather watch
   east and south of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 533.

   DISCUSSION...Vigorous convective development continues to gradually
   grow upscale,  with an expanding and strengthening surface cold
   pool, which will continue to slowly advance south of the Winner SD,
   Valentine and Ainsworth NE  vicinities during the next few hours. 
   The most intense cell has generally been focused along the
   southwestern flank of the outflow, where low-level convergence has
   become enhanced near its intersection with a weak wind shift within
   broader weak surface troughing.  However, south-southeasterly
   updraft inflow of seasonably high low-level moisture content (which
   appears to be contributing to CAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg) may
   support a broader area of intensifying convection into the 00-02Z
   time frame.

   Although deep-layer westerly mean flow is still modest (on the order
   of 20 kt), due to pronounced veering of low through mid-level wind
   fields, shear through the lowest 5-6 km is strong and may support
   the evolution of an organizing cluster with increasing potential to
   produce swaths of strong to severe wind gusts.

   ..Kerr.. 07/30/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...

   LAT...LON   42080050 42419922 42929895 42889782 41609750 40949917
               41010019 41870106 42080050 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN